Three Horizons & Intake Analysis

How Reimagine GNB used strategic foresight to frame its transformation initiative, categorize 335 innovation ideas from across government, and connect the Foundational Levers workshops and Promising Practices Accelerator into a coherent strategy.

December 2025 · Reimagine GNB · Executive Council Office · Government of New Brunswick · DRAFT

1. The Three Horizons Framework

The Three Horizons model is a strategic foresight tool developed by Curry & Hudson (2008) that helps organizations think about change across three timeframes simultaneously. Rather than treating the future as a single destination, it maps three patterns of activity that always coexist — and shows how they interact over time.

Now Transition Future TIME STRATEGIC FIT 1st Horizon The current system 2nd Horizon Transitional innovations 3rd Horizon Visions of the future "Pockets of Future" embedded in Present Visions of the Future

H1  The Current System

Business as usual, where existing structures can impede rather than enable innovation and adaptation, causing a misalignment in strategic fit with the world. The focus here is on optimization and incremental improvement. In GNB: existing departmental structures, siloed budgeting, compliance-driven processes.

H2  Transitional Innovations

An exploration of what could come next — de-risking novel ideas, practices, or models through experimentation. A bridge between today's operations and a vision of tomorrow. In RiGNB: the Promising Practices Accelerator, prototype pilots, cross-departmental experiments.

H3  The Desired Future

A vision for a transformed system where we fundamentally rethink how value is created. The system you would design if you could start fresh. In RiGNB: the Foundational Levers workshops reimagining Policy, Finance, HR, and Digital from scratch.

The Mindset Behind Each Horizon

Operational Excellence
Focus: Protect
"How do we keep the plane flying smoothly while preparing for new flight paths?"
Strategic Adaptability
Focus: Test & Learn
"A bridge between today's operations and a vision of tomorrow. Test safely and learn."
Visionary Stewardship
Focus: Aspire
"The system you would design if you could start fresh."
The Three Horizons are not sequential phases — they coexist. The art of transformation is managing all three simultaneously: sustaining what works (H1), experimenting with bridges (H2), and nurturing radical visions (H3). — Curry & Hudson, Seeing in Multiple Horizons, Journal of Futures Studies 13(1), 2008

2. The Foundational Levers

Foundational levers (e.g. Governance, Policy, Finance, Human Resources, Service & Digital, Data & Technology) are the deep structures, processes, and incentives that shape how GNB makes decisions, allocates resources, and delivers services. These levers either reinforce the old model (siloed, compliance-driven, input-focused) or enable the new model (integrated, outcome-focused, citizen-centric). Without shifting these levers, change often stalls, is harder or slower — no matter how many pilots or innovations are attempted.

Governance

The structures, decision rights, and accountability mechanisms that determine who sets direction, how priorities are aligned across institutions, and how public value is stewarded over time. In a portfolio context, governance encompasses cross-departmental steering, public oversight, and adaptive decision-making.

Policy

The formal articulation of government intent, including rules, incentives, and mandates that shape system behaviour. In portfolios, policy includes co-designed, iterative, and embedded policy, with a strong connection to service delivery, data feedback loops, and lived experience.

Finance

The allocation, flow, and monitoring of public resources to enable delivery and incentivize outcomes. In transformation portfolios, this includes budget models that support experimentation, outcome-based funding, financial reporting reform, and adaptive finance tools (e.g., budget sandboxes).

Human Resources

The systems, policies, and practices that shape how people are recruited, deployed, supported, rewarded, and developed. For portfolios, HR includes workforce planning, new roles (e.g. service designers, data translators), flexible deployment models, and culture change strategies.

Service & Digital

The design and delivery of services across physical and digital channels, grounded in user needs and life-event logic. This function includes service standards, journey mapping, platform integration, human-centred design, and the digital infrastructure for seamless experience.

Data & Technology

The architecture, governance, and use of data, platforms, and digital tools that enable service integration, decision-making, and learning. Portfolios draw on this function to support interoperability, real-time insight, and strategic foresight through dashboards and data loops.

Grants & Contributions

Mechanisms for resourcing external partners, typically in the non-profit or community sector, to deliver public outcomes. In portfolios, this includes redesigning for trust-based funding, outcome-oriented partnerships, collaborative accountability, and multi-year agreements.

Communications & Engagement

The practices, channels, and narratives through which government builds legitimacy, invites participation, and shares learning. In a transformation portfolio, this function includes storytelling, symbolic leadership, civic rituals, internal comms, and participatory design facilitation.

3. How RiGNB Applied the Framework

RiGNB used the Three Horizons to frame the entire transformation initiative — both the analysis of intake submissions and the design of the 2025 work program. Each foundational lever was examined through all three horizon lenses simultaneously:

1st HorizonThe current system
How are these levers presenting as barriers?
Thinking about driving priorities and innovation, what about the current policy, finance, HR, digital, and governance structures is getting in the way? The focus is on optimization and incremental improvement — keeping the plane flying smoothly while preparing for new flight paths.
2nd HorizonTransitional experiments
How might we experiment in safe-to-fail ways, to learn how to reform these foundational elements?
Identifying what is emerging that we should invest in. What prototypes, pilots, and accelerator projects can we run now to bridge from H1 to H3? Test safely and learn.
3rd HorizonThe desired future
What is the future of policy, finance, service, HR, digital?
A vision for a transformed system where we fundamentally rethink how value is created. This is what the Foundational Levers workshops explored — reimagining each function from scratch through Idealized Design, Dimension Canvases, and prototype pitches.

4. Intake Methodology

The RiGNB team conducted a comprehensive intake of innovation ideas from across GNB. The analysis used the Three Horizons and Foundational Levers as the primary classification frameworks.

297
Submissions received
Raw intake from across GNB
335
Ideas extracted
Some submissions contained multiple ideas (e.g. 1 had 13)
8
Levers mapped
Each idea classified by foundational lever
3
Horizons assigned
H1 incremental, H2 transitional, H3 transformative

Methodology Development

Each idea was classified using several indicators:

Horizons

Horizon 1 (now), Horizon 2 (transition), and Horizon 3 (future). See Appendix A for further detail on the framework.

Program vs. Seed & Support

Defines level of complexity — the number of departments required to be involved and the complexity of the challenge.

Foundational Levers

The levers that shape how we make decisions, allocate resources, and deliver services (e.g. budgets, policy).

Lead Department

Defined based on the idea generated — where most relevant to existing departmental mandates.

Theme

Further breakout into themes (e.g. Digital ID, payments process, libraries). AI leveraged where possible to capture cross-cutting themes.

Analysis Process

Download & Extract — 297 submissions downloaded. Each read and tagged with horizon, lever, lead department, and theme. Some submissions broke into multiple ideas, yielding 335 discrete ideas. AI leveraged to capture cross-cutting themes (e.g., Digital ID appearing across many submissions).
Follow-up & Clarification — Conversations with submitters or subject matter experts where clarification was required.
Departmental Reviews — Slide packs prepared for each department, organized by horizon and foundational lever. Ideas reviewed with DM and/or DM and executive team.
Categorization — Ideas categorized into: already in flight, not viable (park), incremental or transformative with potential, and highest-traction priorities.
Prioritization — Truly innovative and transformative ideas flagged for the Reimagine Committee. Remaining ideas routed to departments to tackle at their level.

5. Key Findings

% based on completed reviews with departments and final responses confirmed

Distribution of 335 ideas by horizon
~80% H1 Incremental
~15% H2/H3
H1 — Incremental (Seed & Support) H2 & H3 — Transitional / Transformative Not specific or not viable
~80%
H1 Incremental — improvements to the current approach
~40%
Already in flight — of which ~85% were deemed incremental
~15%
H2 & H3 — transitional or transformative ideas
~30%
Not specific or not viable as submitted
13
Individuals interested in innovation training

Among the in-flight transformative projects, Court Digitization stood out as a notable example of H2/H3 work already underway. Consistent themes emerged around Technology & Digitization and Human Resources.

Portfolio Distribution

74%
All other areas
17%
Children & Youth
9%
Seniors & Long-Term Care

Ideas skewed heavily toward general government operations rather than the two priority life-phase portfolios. This suggested broad appetite for improvement, but the deepest transformation energy wasn't yet focused on the priority populations.

6. Where the Ideas Landed — By Lever

When mapped against the eight Foundational Levers, ideas clustered heavily around Data & Technology and Service & Digital — the two levers perceived as most amenable to innovation. Policy and Finance received fewer submissions, suggesting higher perceived barriers to change in these areas.

Data &
Technology
Service &
Digital
Governance
Grants &
Contributions
Human
Resources
Comms &
Engagement
Policy
Finance
>10 submissions 5–10 submissions <5 submissions

Note: More than one submission could be for the same idea. The concentration in Data & Technology and Service & Digital is consistent with the broader finding: these levers are where practitioners see the most immediate opportunity. That Policy and Finance received fewer submissions underscores why the Foundational Levers workshops for these functions were particularly important — they needed to cultivate innovation thinking in areas where it didn't emerge organically.

7. The Transformative Ideas (H2 & H3)

The ~15% of ideas classified as transformative were concentrated in Data & Technology and Service & Digital. These are the "pockets of future embedded in the present" that the Three Horizons framework identifies: ideas with low fit in the current system but high potential to define the future.

H2/H3 Transformative — Data & Technology

Digital ID underpinned by Digital Hub Highest Impact
Enables many other ideas raised. A secure digital identity platform serving as the foundation for connected, citizen-centred services across government.(a)
Digital Client Files
Ability to eliminate paper and increase ease of access to client information across services.
Business Registries
One place for corporates to reduce barriers to business — a single registry replacing fragmented processes.
AI Chatbots
Easier navigation of government information using AI to make services discoverable.
Application Status Portal, Digital Signatures, Benefits App
Transformative if connected to Digital ID for citizens.(a)

H2/H3 Transformative — Service & Digital

Enterprise-Wide Client Relationship Management Tool
Enables whole-of-government relationship management — a single view of how citizens interact across departments.

H2/H3 Transformative — Governance

Enterprise Project Management Tool
Cross-government project visibility and coordination. Requires good data governance and clean data.(b)
Enterprise-Wide Records and Management System
Transformative if data collection is for multi-use, not just RTIPPA compliance.(c)

(a) Transformative if connected to digital ID for citizens   (b) Requires good data governance and clean data   (c) Transformative if data collection is for multi-use not just RTIPPA

8. Reimagine Focus in 2025 — Aligned with Idea Submissions

The intake findings directly shaped and validated how RiGNB deployed its resources in 2025. The transformative ideas from submissions aligned with the work streams already being built. Here is how the activities mapped to the transformation strategy:

H3  Foundational Levers Workshops

Three half-day workshops per stream to reimagine the role of each foundational lever. August/September sessions with Policy, Finance, and Service Design through Digital & Technology. November/December focus with Human Resources. A combined cross-function workshop brought all streams together.

Sessions: 1) Exploring the Future → 2) Imagining the Future → 3) From Vision to Practice

Policy and Finance linked back to the "How it All Broke" report.

H2  Promising Practices Accelerator

Short, intensive program for teams to work on promising approaches to complex challenges in two life-phase portfolios. September workshop with Aging Well and targeted SME interviews for Children & Youth to define focus areas. Launched November 13th.

Streams: ISD Governance & Decision-Making · ISD Data Collection & Outcomes · Caregiver Support Hub · Outcomes for Home Support

Foundational lever teams engaged with Accelerator teams directly.

Early Adopters Workshop

September all-day workshop including alignment champions and practitioners of human-centred design and innovation.

Share & Shape 2025 — Introducing the Reimagine team, the vision, mission and fall plans. Space to shape and improve existing efforts and explore ideas for 2026.

Map & Connect — Time for the group to share what they are working on and collectively map existing efforts that align with Reimagine movement.

Build the Backbone — Discuss what's next and how we might build this movement together.

Good Services Assessment

Lou Downe's Good Services assessment framework being applied to GNB services. Used publicly available tools and GNB examples to create a cohesive approach. Presented to GNB Alignment Champions on November 27th — many interested in trying the tool.

HNB, SNB, and Public Health have begun using the Good Services framework on one service each. Working with selected GNB teams to apply the self-assessment scale to their services.

Cross-Lever Integration

Foundational Levers teams engaged with Accelerator teams, creating direct connections between the H3 vision work and the H2 experiments.

The implementation of the Homelessness Taskforce was borne directly from the pooled funding concept explored in the Reimagine Finance workshop.

9. Next Steps

The intake analysis and 2025 activity map provide the foundation for the next phase of Reimagine GNB. The prioritization work has surfaced a clear set of directions:

Reimagine Committee Focus

Truly innovative and transformative ideas have been flagged for the Reimagine Committee's attention — these are the H2 and H3 ideas that require cross-departmental coordination, senior sponsorship, and deliberate investment to advance.

Departmental Action

The remaining ideas — the bulk of H1 incremental improvements — have been routed to departments to tackle at their level. These represent meaningful operational improvements that don't require whole-of-government coordination.

Growing H2 Experiments

The Accelerator model, prototype testing (Digital Trust, outcome-based budgeting), and Good Services assessments represent a growing portfolio of H2 experiments. The challenge is expanding these while maintaining their connection to the H3 vision.

10. Connecting It All Together

The Three Horizons framework reveals how the different pieces of Reimagine GNB fit together as a coherent transformation strategy — not isolated activities, but complementary work across all three timeframes.

H1 — Current System H2 — Experiments H3 — Future Visions ~80% of 335 ideas: incremental ~40% already in flight Dimension Canvas "Today" scores Good Services Assessment baseline Current-system tensions (Accel.) Promising Practices Accelerator 4 team prototypes (tested) Workshop Session 3 prototypes Homelessness Taskforce (pooled $) Digital Trust wallet prototype Good Services self-assessment Foundational Levers workshops Idealized Design exercises Dimension Canvas "Future" visions Digital ID / Digital Trust architecture Outcome-based budgeting model Social Policy Office / Life-event svcs Early Adopters & Innovation CoP

The Key Insight

The intake analysis confirmed that GNB's innovation energy overwhelmingly defaults to H1 — ~80% of 335 ideas were incremental improvements to the current system. Only ~15% were transitional or transformative. This is exactly the pattern the Three Horizons framework predicts: organizations naturally gravitate toward H1 because it feels safe and actionable.

The value of Reimagine GNB is that it deliberately created space for all three horizons. The Foundational Levers workshops pulled practitioners into H3 thinking — imagining the future of policy, finance, HR, and digital from scratch. The Accelerator gave teams permission and structure to operate in H2 — running real experiments that bridge toward that future. The intake process gave honest visibility into the H1 gravity that the organization must consciously resist.

The transformation challenge going forward is to keep all three horizons active simultaneously: sustaining H1 operations, growing the portfolio of H2 experiments, and protecting H3 visions from being pulled back into incrementalism. Early signs of this integration are already visible — the Homelessness Taskforce emerged directly from the Finance workshop's pooled funding concept, and the Digital Trust wallet prototype is testing the highest-impact intake idea. These bridges from vision to practice are exactly what the Three Horizons framework calls for.

The most transformative ideas — Digital ID, outcome-based budgeting, life-event service integration, the Social Policy Office — are H3 visions that emerged from the workshops. Their path to reality runs through H2 experiments: prototypes, pilots, and accelerator sprints that test pieces of the vision in the real world. The intake data shows why both are necessary: without H3 vision work, the organization defaults to H1 incrementalism. Without H2 experiments, H3 visions remain aspirational.